Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2°C pathways

G Luderer, Z Vrontosi, C Bertram, …, L Drouet, et al

Abstract

The Paris Agreement—which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 C—has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally determined contributions to reach these long-term goals. Achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net CO 2 emissions, of which residual CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels are the greatest impediment. Here, using an ensemble of seven integrated assessment models (IAMs), we explore the determinants of these residual emissions, focusing on sector-level contributions. Even when strengthened pre-2030 mitigation action is combined with very stringent long-term policies, cumulative residual CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels remain at 850–1,150 GtCO 2 during 2016–2100, despite carbon prices of US $130–420 per tCO 2 by 2030.